Five political parties – GERB, the Bulgarian Socialist party, MRF, the Reform Bloc and Bulgaria without Censorship, are the most likely players in the next National Assembly after the early elections on October 5. This is what the latest study of Alpha Research polling agency shows. Currently, the Socialist Party is expected to retain results from May, but a protest vote against it is also possible and it would be in favor of GERB and other parties. It is also possible that fewer parties enter the next parliament. Sudden changes in the last moment are possible too, especially when parties close to the entry barrier are concerned.

What are the possible shifts and which one of the parties would not be able to cross the 4-percent threshold? Here is the answer of political scientist Dimitar Avramov?

"It's hard to say which one of the parties close to the threshold would not be able to cross it. The Reform Bloc appears more reliable in terms of crossing the barrier, but only appears to be so. It is unclear what will actually happen. In recent years it has become much more difficult for small parties and for parties close to the 4% threshold, because there is a feeling of uncertainty in society and then major political parties, which create a feeling they can guarantee stability of social processes, get more trust."

A center-right majority is highly probable in the next Bulgarian parliament. What changes can be expected in the policy of the next government in comparison to the former cabinet, said to be an expert one, but with a leftist mandate-holder?

"Speaking about internal affairs, there are serious issues that haven’t been solved for years. We have a wrong pattern for development of the energy sphere with state monopoly that is irresponsible towards the market and politicians using it as a financial buffer. We have a quasi-socialist model of a healthcare system. The situation in the education sphere is similar," says Dimitar Avramov.

According to him, reforms in these spheres are urgent, otherwise spending for them would continue to rise and they would drain national resources. The task of a center-right government is to have a simple and clear plan on how to reduce costs in these areas and make them more effective.

 Speaking about international politics Dimitar Avramov says Bulgaria did not have a clear idea about its position on the scene. “Obviously, Bulgaria is a member of the EU and NATO, which puts us on the side of the West but at the same time we act like an offshoot of the former socialist bloc with all the outdated notions of the world and international policy, not based on our national interests. Bulgaria is lost somewhere between the East and West and succumbs to anyone willing to show pressure. And that will not change soon, because it is not a matter of changing the political actors in power, but is a matter of national outlook,” Mr. Avramov adds.

Pressure exerted by Russia, is widely debated in Bulgarian media, especially at the backdrop of the South Stream Project. One of the main mechanisms for political influence from Moscow remains energy pressure. Meanwhile, key European partners of Bulgaria continue to speak about the need to end Bulgaria's energy dependence on Russia. What will happen with the South Stream project in the next government?

"Unfortunately, Bulgaria’s position related to the project is not a rational one and I do not expect a change. If the Bulgarian government, whether we speak about the Tripartite Coalition, GERB or the cabinet of Oresharski, wanted to have diversification of energy sources, we would have already finished gas links with Greece, Turkey and Romania. But there are no such working links. In this situation, any discussion of diversification and energy independence is just empty chatter. Bulgarian national interest requires the project to be evaluated very carefully in order to see what the country earns from ancillary activities."

 This requires a more emancipated position, as it became clear that the Russian side even offered legislative changes in favor of the project.
 
 "Russia should not be in a position to propose legislative changes to a Member State of the EU in order to ensure the implementation of a project that is important to its economy. On the other hand, Russia is a strong country that can afford doing such things. Bulgaria is not required to comply. It is very important that the project remains beneficial to the Bulgarian economy. Unfortunately, public opinion is extremely polarized when we speak about such projects. People either support or oppose the project. Experience has shown that we mostly lose in such situations. We take wrong decisions because we are more focused on political interests rather than on the particular benefits of one or another major project."

English: Alexander Markov