Recently the Institute for Population and Human Studies at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences has made public a report which argues that until 2040 Bulgarians will decline by further 20-25 percent. Based on data from the National Statistical Institute, Eurostat, the United Nations and the World Bank the forecast was submitted for discussion to the Bulgarian government.

BGNES news agency has carried an article on the topic noting that when the 8-millionth Bulgarian citizen was born on 2 April 1962, close to 24 hours photo reporters kept taking pictures of the baby and the happy mother. The 1960s was a time when a baby was born in this country once every nine minutes.

Comparing the situation then with the present day the commentator remarks that 56 years later the population of Bulgaria has dwindled to about 7 million. Since the beginning of democratic changes in 1989 this country has lost close to 2 million persons. Most of them have emigrated and the chances of them coming back to the motherland are rather slim.

Apart from looking for a better life abroad, Bulgarians have scored record highs in mortality – 14.5 per mille. In 2017, statistics from the CIA Bulgaria ranks third by this index along with the Baltic States and the African countries.

In latest forecasts, the share of young people aged below 20 will remain the same coupled with a significant growth in the number of persons aged 65 and more. This also spells a decline in the number and share of the able-bodied population. Population decline based on the territorial principle has affected almost all regions of Bulgaria except for the capital city, and in all likelihood the process will continue in the long term.

Bulgaria is no exception in Europe: in almost half of the EU Member States forecasts point to population decline. This will happen in at least eleven countries: Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Greece, Croatia, Portugal, Poland, Hungary, Estonia, Italy and Slovakia. The population of neighboring Serbia and Greece is set to decrease with rates similar to the Bulgarian one.

By 2041, Serbia’s population is expected to plummet by 23 percent, down to 5.5 million. The workforce in that country will age progressively and will shrink by 21 percent, UNICEF has warned. In practice Serbia has already faced serious negative demographic trends and workforce deficit.

The situation is similar in Greece. It is one of the EU countries with severely ageing population with already 21 percent of it aged 65 or more. Until 2030 the population of that Balkan state will decline to 9.9 million and until 2050 – to 8.9 million down from the current 10.6 million.

Compiled by Stoimen Pavlov

English Daniela Konstantinova