The negative effects of the second wave of the world economic crisis on the Bulgarian economy have become more tangible. The stagnation amidst the SMEs has led to job redundancies and laying off of staff. According to data of the Employment Agency, the number of unemployed Bulgarians in end-November 2011 was slightly over 327 000, which accounts for a 10% unemployment rate overall. Experts find it hard to forecast the developments on the labour market in 2012 with the increasing employment opportunities for Bulgarian nationals in other European countries leading to a brain drain in search of better fulfillment and payment.
Valya and Ivan are two young Bulgarians in the 30-something age group, who have decided to seek employment abroad. Valya is a university graduate in Chemistry, and has been unemployed for a year after being laid off from her previous job. Ivan is an IT specialist, and has also chosen to look for a better future elsewhere, with the hope of better remuneration for his skills. For one reason, or another, both have set their eyes on Israel. Although they would prefer to go to Spain, but right now the employment prospects there are not exactly bright.
Spain is a logical choice because the largest number of Bulgarians, nearly 167 000 thousand on EUROSTAT figures, work there. It is likely that in 2011 because of the ongoing economic crisis that number may have gone down, and yet the Bulgarian colony remains the largest in Europe. Following Spain are Germany and Italy. Actually, Italy opened its labour market for Bulgarians as of January 1, 2012, which may result in a boom in the number of Bulgarians working there.
In the case of Valya and Ivan Bulgaria will definitely lose highly trained specialists. Employers have given rather pessimistic forecasts in saying that the companies will continue laying off staff in the first months of 2012, too, because of the difficult economic situation and the drop in investments, both domestic and foreign. The salaries in most companies will remain at their 2011 level, claim nearly half of the employers surveyed by the Bulgarian Industrial Association. A little over 20% of the polled employers are of the opinion that they might even have to lower them down a bit.
Vladimir Kalchev, head of the department of “Free Movement of Workers, Migration and Integration” at the Bulgarian Labour and Social Policy Ministry argues that it is very difficult to cast projections on the 2012 labour market in Bulgaria, because of the dynamically changing European context.
“I’d say the economic situation is far from stable, and is related to a great many risk factors. Investments are a driving force for the development of any economy. And there are currently no investments in Bulgaria or elsewhere. Big companies refrain from making investments until skies clear up once more. The banks also report an increase in personal savings, i.e. consumption has been frozen. A great many factories work with a lower capacity because they cannot sell their output. That will certainly lead to redundancies. The only prospect for a shifting on the labour market may come from the implementation of some major infrastructure projects that will create new jobs. Another feasible option for creating employment opportunities is to provide better absorption of EU funding under various programmes.”
According to the survey of the Bulgarian Industrial Association, only 8% have responded that they intend to hire new staff in 2012. Meanwhile, precise information is lacking on the demand and the current situation on the labour market, so that the business could provide for the shortages. A poll carried out by Manpower, Bulgaria in 2011 revealed that 11% of the Bulgarian employers hired foreign experts because of shortages of Bulgarian staff. Thus, one in ten employers finds engineers in the United Kingdom or Germany.
On the other hand, Human Resources managers are concerned by the ongoing migration of qualified Bulgarians. The case of Valya and Ivan is yet another example. On November 11, the European Commission published a report that highlighted the positive role of Bulgarian and Romanian employees on the economies of the receiving EU member states. They had filled in vacancies in the construction and development, restaurateuring and hoteliering sectors, and the services, including house help, and the care for elderly people.
One way to prevent the outflow of highly qualified specialists is to force all university graduates, who flee the country, to return the money that the state had spent on their education. The Bulgarian Industrial Association is of the opinion that annual analyses on the work force are needed. They insist also that the demand for specialists by the economy is projected jointly with the professional and employers’ unions, and also by strengthening ties between the universities and the business.
English version by Radostin Zhelev
