Bulgaria lies at the heart of a major political rivalry between Russia on the one hand, and the USA and EU on the other, trying in the meantime, to defend its own interest. In this way energy expert Prof. Nina Dyulgerova defines Bulgaria’s role in big energy projects. Despite the hot summer, negotiations have not stopped at all.
All three Russian-European projects with Bulgarian involvement will be executed, expert Nina Dyulgerova contends. Despite that Bulgaria’s energy dependence on Moscow will hardly come to and end, given that this country imports 75% of its primary energy sources such as oil, natural gas, nuclear fuel and coal, from Russia. Still, a process is underway of quitting this dependence, and it focuses on creating two-way cross-border junctions for gas deliveries from Greece, Turkey and Romania, who are going to diversify their supplies to Bulgaria. Besides, this country counts on its own natural gas deposits close to the Black Sea with an estimated capacity of 3 billion cubic meters.
What are the prospects of the South Stream gas pipeline that should go across Bulgaria?
“It will be completed, due to the availability of natural gas, and to already finalized political, economic and financial processes”, Nina Dyulgerova says. “It will be executed along a route determined by Gazprom, rather than along one negotiated by the transiting countries. Given that the route starts from Russia, it will judge what way the route should conveniently follow.”
Talks between Russia and Serbia for the construction of Bulgaria’s second NPP Belene, extended into July and August. Evaluations suggest that it will cost roughly EUR 6 billion. Serbia said it was willing to join the project with a 5% stake.
“Belene NPP will be built, because its economic value is equal to its political value”, Prof. Dyulgerova argues. “The plant is part of the strategy of Europe’s leading countries and of Russia for boosting their positioning in nuclear power. The new NPP will restore Bulgaria’s leading role as the energy center of the Balkans, supplying power to Macedonia, Greece and Serbia. The political value of Belene NPP stems from the fact that it is a counterpoint to planned Russian-Turkish construction and exploitation of a nuclear power plant in Southern Turkey that will cost EUR 20 billion,”
According to Prof. Dyulgerova the third big energy project that goes across Bulgarian territory, the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline, has also headed to an execution stage. “It will be completed because it is a project in which both Greece and Russia are involved, and because it will be profitable for Europe”, Nina Dyulgerova thinks.
“Everything is linked to the Black Sea and Caspian regions. The oil pipeline rivals: Turkey that has its own project Samsun-Ceyhan; China, trying to redirect the oil stream from Siberia and the Caspian Sea to its domestic market; Georgia, which is anxious to make good use of the Turkish pipeline; as well as a few private American companies-owners of Bulgaria’s oil refinery. This process is part of the big political game. We have to bear in mind that Bulgaria is now the center of the powerful geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the USA and EU and is part of the game.”
Each of the mentioned projects has to do with financial flows and with long-term political and diplomatic strategies.
“At present, the EU cannot boast of great successes there, while the Bulgarian ambassadors and the Foreign Ministry continue brisk contacts with those key countries providing for 35% of energy supplies to the whole of Europe”, energy expert Prof. Nina Dyulgerova says.
English version Daniela Konstantinova
