The demographic challenges that Bulgaria is faced with, namely, low birthrate, population ageing and the migration process, are not unlike the problems experienced across Europe. Data from the latest population census carried out in the first months of last year, are alarming. The Bulgarians have been melting away giving birth to fewer and fewer children while the number of pensioners has been on a steady rise. Recently the government endorsed a 2012-2030 National Strategy for the Demographic Development of Bulgaria that suggests ideas for management of economic and social effects triggered by demographic imbalance.
Statistics report that the Bulgarian population comes to 7.3 M. The trend of population decline is likely to continue, and by 2050 the nation will contract to 7 M. The reasons are many, including a long-term low birthrate, high child and general mortality and emigration. Child mortality in 2010 was 9.4 per one thousand, more than double the EU average that stands at 4.3 per one thousand. In 2030 a woman in childbearing age will have the average of 1.5 children. In case predictions of national statistics become reality the population growth will remain negative. In 2020 even with zero emigration, the population will continue to decline. The falling birthrate that entails contraction of the workforce in the future requires the enforcement of brand new incentives and a revision of the state policy where family planning is concerned, the strategy reads.
The process of democratization has powered emigration. From 2001 to 2010 when two consecutive censuses were held, population has declined by more than 170,000, statistics reports. In most cases emigrants are young and able individuals in whom the state has invested massively. This brings about serious social and economic consequences. Emigration deals a major blow to reproduction, as female leavers are more often than not women in childbearing age. This works to cut the potential of the future birthrate for a period spanning 15 to 50 years ahead. Emigrants are motivated to leave in pursuit of higher incomes and higher living standards. It is a question of future policies to lure some of the emigrants back but in return the state should have created good career opportunities for them. Domestic migration has also increased, speeding up depopulation of smaller towns and villages.
Bulgaria’s population has been ageing at a fast rate. The coefficient of demographic replacement has also decreased, meaning the rate of replacement of people in retirement age by teenagers in the overall structure of the population. In 2001 every 100 persons leaving the able-bodied share of the population, were replaced by 124 young people. Now the ratio is 100 to 74. This trend is likely to destabilize public finance and hamper economic growth.
According to demographic statistics, one realistic goal until 2030 would be to slow down population decline by encouraging the birthrate. This implies the creation of an environment that favors child upbringing, improvement of the nation’s reproductive health and prevention of infertility, as well as boosting family planning. Policies are needed to prevent mass emigration of young people in reproductive age, by means of upgrading the quality of the work environment and by luring back home Bulgarians residing abroad.
Expanding the range of health and social services for elderly people and the improvement of their quality of life is a way to play down the negative impacts of the nation’s ageing. This will open up greater opportunities for a longer participation of older generations of Bulgarians on the labor market.
Translated by Daniela Konstantinova
