In September 2018 tension occurred within the ruling coalition due to controversies between GERB and the United Patriots. Now, we are witnessing new turbulence in the government, this time due to controversies within the United Patriots coalition itself. Bulgaria’s Deputy Premier and leader of the National Front for Salvation of Bulgaria (NFSB) Valeri Simeonov resigned nearly one month after the start of the protests of the Bulgarian mothers with children with disabilities. However, the protests in Bulgaria continued after his resignation as well. Several hours after Valeri Simeonov handed in his resignation the leader of Ataka party Volen Siderov called on the other Deputy Premier and leader of VMRO (nominated by the United Patriots) Krasimir Karakachanov) to resign as well. In Volen Siderov’s words, the small coalition (the United Patriots) needs a rescue plan, in order to avoid the collapse not only of the ruling coalition, but of patriotism in Bulgaria. Minister Karakachanov ironically called this idea a “creative idea” and added that he was not able to sleep all night after he heard this proposal. As a result of the latest tension within the small coalition, the three political formations in the United Patriots Ataka, VMRO and NFSB will hold a coalition council on November 20 (Tuesday) to try to overcome the problems. It is difficult to tell whether or how they could do it, because NFSB removed their confidence from the leader of Ataka party and chairman of the United Patriots Parliamentary group Volen Siderov for over a month now.  Moreover, VMRO rejects Volen Siderov’s ideas for salvation of the small coalition. This time it will be difficult to ease tension only with wishes for better communication between the coalition partners. However, there are still chances, because the three parties in the United Patriots coalition realize well that they can share the destiny of the Reformist Bloc who partnered with GERB in the Borissov 2 cabinet. This is so, because none of these political parties are likely to overcome the 4% barrier to enter the Bulgarian National Assembly alone, if possible early elections were held now. The ruling GERB party said in principle that no changes to the coalition agreement with the United Patriots were made so far and that they did not expect early Parliamentary elections. On the other hand, the opposition apparently does not want to benefit from the turbulence within the government. The Bulgarian Socialist Party described the resignation of Deputy Premier Simeonov as a segment of a bigger picture and “victory of the awakened civil energy”.

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms also avoid making radical statements. The Bulgarian sociologists note that the visible outflow of confidence from the parties of the ruling coalition does not boost confidence in political formations who are currently opposition in the Bulgarian Parliament. This is indirectly confirmed by the protests held in many Bulgarian towns and cities on Sunday. In the beginning the protests were against the high fuel prices. Later, the Sunday protest evolved in demands for resignation of the Bulgarian government, change of the political system. Some protesters even insisted that the whole political class should be brought to justice. In Sofia the street protests were organized in front of many emblematic institutions. Most political analysts are skeptical that the latest events in Bulgaria may lead to the resignation of the Borissov 3 cabinet.

A public opinion survey of a Bulgarian media shows the following controversial picture.

Key to the graph:

• Protests will stop due to the winter conditions /20% /

• Borissov 3 cabinet can function without a fourth Deputy Premier /26%/

• The Bulgarian government will resign /42% /

• The Movement for Rights and Freedoms will help the government /10% /

Written by: Stoimen Pavlov

English version: Kostadin Atanasov