Climate disasters have "eaten up" 1% of the Bulgarian economy in 2025

published on 10/9/25 1:10 PM

Photo: Ministry of Defense

Since the beginning of the current year, Bulgaria has experienced record heat waves, a series of devastating fires, and a new disaster just days ago – catastrophic floods that claimed human lives. Climate change already has its price – and it is growing with each passing year. According to a new analysis by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the University of Mannheim, it cost Europe around 43 billion euros in 2025 alone. But these are preliminary figures that do not take into account the continent's latest natural disasters, and the year is not over yet.

For the entire EU, the damage amounts to a quarter of a percent of the economy, but for Bulgaria the blow is four times stronger. The losses in Bulgaria reach one percent of the GDP, or about one billion euros – as much as the budget of a medium-sized city.

In practice, this means that in 2025, every Bulgarian has "lost" about 140 euros due to drought and heat, comments Gennady Kondarev, an energy expert at the Black Sea Energy Research Center.

"The situation is similar in neighboring Greece. The other most affected countries are Cyprus and Malta. Why? Because they are small economies, largely exposed to climate-related risks. Otherwise, in absolute terms, the large economies in Europe suffer even greater losses. Bulgaria is not sufficiently prepared for the growing climate risks - Bulgarian infrastructure is outdated, and the new one is often built without taking climate change into account.

We know that among the causes of the severe damage and loss of life on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast is most likely construction where it should not be built. And events that used to happen "once in a century" are now repeating themselves more and more often.

An example of this is the sharp temperature amplitudes this year - a warm end of winter, followed by a cold spring, which hit agriculture and raised fruit prices, and then - a hot September and snowstorms in early October. Therefore, it is time to start planning and building with the extreme weather in mind, which is already the new normal."

Experts warn that Bulgaria is among the most vulnerable countries in Europe - because of its dependence on agriculture and water resources and limited adaptation options, therefore urgent measures are needed.

"The possibilities are numerous and all of this falls within the scope of adaptation", explains Gennady Kondarev. "All summer we have been talking, especially during the wildfires, about providing equipment to put out these fires, and not having everything done by volunteers and with improvised equipment.

But at the same time, we must also think about long-term solutions. Is our infrastructure - dams, water systems - ready for the new climate phenomena? At the moment they are empty, but heavy rainfall can quickly fill them. As temperatures rise, storms become stronger, droughts - more severe. This summer has shown us that Bulgaria is not as rich in water resources as we thought, and they are being lost due to unmaintained infrastructure and imprecise management, leading to water regimes."

Over 260,000 people in Bulgaria face water shortages – where is the crisis rooted and what can be done?

We can do more – protect the soil, use and recycle water wisely, so as not to undermine the possibilities for food production. But this requires recognition of the problem, as well as good planning. However, Bulgarian society has difficulty recognizing these long-term trends and is often deceived by populist promises that there is no need for action.

The forecasts for 2030 are alarming – losses from climate change could reach 3 to 5% of the Bulgarian economy, says Gennady Kondarev and adds:

"We are talking about changes that can erase any economic progress. If Bulgaria loses 3 to 5% of the added value of its economy annually or cannot achieve it, what kind of economic growth is this! Sectors such as agriculture are directly affected. So is tourism, because there are already parts of the seasons that become unpredictable if a person wants to plan their vacation, etc. An extreme event can destroy assets in various sectors, which makes the situation particularly complicated."

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Photos: BTA, BGNES, Bulgarian National Radio, Ministry of Defense

English publication: R. Petkova

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