We now know the results of the referendum in Greece. The euphoria demonstrated by the winners that swept through the streets of Greece last night has come and gone and the time has now come for reflection; but any reflection on the Greek “NO” to the creditors is causing ripples across the region and Europe with results that are difficult to predict. We are yet to see whether the negotiations between Athens and the creditors will be resumed and if they are what their basis will be, whether Greece will stay in the eurozone and how the zone is going to cope with all this.
Whatever the possible answers, it looks like Greece is in for a very tough time, at least in the mid-term; a tough time for one of the EU members means a tough time for all others. Hours after the referendum, for example, the euro dropped by 1.5 percent and this automatically means the devaluation of the Bulgarian lev which is pegged to the euro. How long will this process take and where could it lead?
Greece is one of the leading countries of Southeastern Europe and if it is to undergo a tough period this means a tough period for the other countries of the region as well. This is particularly true of those countries which are not members of the EU for which Greece should be a "lodestar" of European integration. But the problems now emerging are more than economic, they are political as well. How will developments in Greece affect the ideas of eurozone enlargement? This is a question that is especially poignant for Bulgaria, whose government set up a steering committee for the country’s eurozone accession just a few days ago. Won’t the Syriza victory consolidate the positions of others like them in Europe? The victory at the referendum in Greece sets a precedent that may prove enticing for other countries. There are parties which demonstrate ideas similar to Syriza’s in Bulgaria too and some experts even called the phenomenon the “Syriza virus”, which is now evident in Bulgaria’s economy with the calls to renounce liabilities in power generation and the financial sector. And last but not least won’t Europe’s commitment to Greece’s problems divert the union’s attention and energy from vital problems the other members are having, something Bulgarian officials have already been talking about?
In his first televised statement after the referendum Alexis Tsipras stated Greece was willing to return to talks, but “this time the issue of debt will be on the negotiating table.” There followed the first confirmations of the predictions of cabinet reshuffles. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis quit, a sign of serious changes in Greece’s negotiating positions. The situation is extremely grave and assuming a committed position is a must. In the case of Bulgaria, such a commitment is inevitable, notably because of the fact that for the most part, Greece’s creditors are Bulgaria’s creditors too. At the same time, Sofia’s positions must be coordinated with the positions of the EU. The tough negotiations are just hours away, at a high and summit level, and will probably be the political highlight in the days and weeks to come.
English version: Milena Daynova
