The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the EU and USA which, according to forecasts by the European institutions was expected to be signed by the end of 2015, now looks like being postponed for next year. The news came from European People’s Party MEP Svetoslav Malinov at a “pro or con” discussion organized by him.

The reason for this delay is the fact that the sides have reached a deadlock on the chapter, regarding investor-state dispute settlements. American business wants the disputes between companies and governments to be settled by arbitration –arbitral tribunals defending business interests and placing the right to profits above human rights on which the judicial system is based.

“Unless a solution is found, the partnership agreement may be rejected by European Parliament,” Malinov commented for Radio Bulgaria. “Arbitration is a practice that entails many risks and which big investors can easily abuse.”

Svetoslav Malinov adds that investors from USA are firm in their demand that the disputes are settled by way of international arbitration, otherwise they would be unsure of their capital. Malinov also disagrees with the chapter, regarding intellectual property:

“I wouldn’t want to see the stringent American rules in this sphere introduced in Europe. But that wouldn’t be something that could swing my vote. What could change my vote is the decision on arbitration.”

Svetoslav Malinov adds that there is an erroneous idea that is current - that the negotiations are not transparent. He comments that the practice with trade agreements is not to make all of the information public, adding that once the document is signed, it will be published and there will be enough time to discuss it. Once finalized, however, the agreement cannot be amended – it can only be voted – “for” or “against” by the European Parliament and in this sense its publication will be for the record, but no alterations of unfavourable clauses will be possible.

According to Desislava Nikolova, analyst at the Institute for Market Economics, signing the agreement will benefit the Bulgarian economy because it will mean no customs duties and an increase in Bulgarian exports to US. This country exports to USA tobacco, machines, cheese, fodder, vegetables, foodstuffs, petroleum products etc.

On the other hand, according to the National Statistical Institute, exports to the United States account for a mere 1.4 percent of Bulgaria’s total exports, comments Vanya Grigorova, economist at the Solidarity Bulgaria citizens’ association. Bulgaria is a net importer and not a net exporter of goods.

“We don’t see the potential that we had explained to us today opening up before Bulgaria. What we export are mostly starting and raw materials, not the end products.”

As to imports, being small, the Bulgarian market is hardly likely to be of any interest to American manufacturers. Tailoring is the only industry that may prove to be a potential niche. According to some European surveys, garment manufacturers may be in jeopardy, as the Americans import materials from China which they only assemble, and this brings down costs. The production that will enter the country as American is in fact Chinese, and we certainly cannot be competitive cost-wise. According to Vanya Grigorova, this will bankrupt some manufacturers and raise the unemployment level in Bulgaria.

English version: Milena Daynova