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Breakup of Macedonia could ignite the entire Balkans

БНР Новини
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The situation in the Republic of Macedonia attracts Bulgarian attention, not only because it is a neighboring country. We should recall that on January 15, 1992 Bulgaria was the first country that recognized Macedonia as independent and sovereign. In a special interview for Radio Bulgaria Lyubomir Kyuchukov, CEO of the Economics and International Relations Institute, told us more about the processes in the post-Yugoslav space.  
 
First come the processes after the breakup of Yugoslavia and in particular - the process of building independent statehood in the former Yugoslav republics. In practice, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia, as the two most vulnerable new countries in the region faced a complex task to make the transition from a multinational confederation to a nation-state, preserving multiethnic tolerance at the same time. 
 
The second level of the processes is the role of the Albanian factor that is characterized by expansionism and is hiding the most serious potential risk to stability in the region. Moreover there is a trend of seeking the unification of ethnic Albanians from former Yugoslav republics around Kosovo. 
 
The third factor is the inability of the Macedonian society and Macedonian leaders to find solutions to complex internal issues.

"The Ohrid Agreement laid the foundations of a modern society in the Republic of Macedonia, but it could not erase all the contradictions that had accumulated inside it,” says Lyubomir Kyuchukov. “The political situation has led to a government that is often blamed for violating democratic principles and using authoritarian methods. Corruption allegations are currently very strong. To these we must add the worsening socio-economic situation, the overall impoverishment of the Macedonian population. These are all problems that generate another level of confrontation – in addition to ethnic confrontation there is acute social and political confrontation. The fourth and especially important factor is the position of the EU. Deficit of EU presence is felt in the region. EC President Juncker said there will be no EU enlargement in the next five years and this position is not surprising. But it is not very productive in terms of the commitment to the situation in the Western Balkans demonstrated by Brussels, and leads to decline in motivation for meeting the membership criteria, and this also contributes to deepening existing internal problems." 
 
How is the situation in Macedonia affecting Bulgaria?

"Bulgaria has every reason, just like the other countries in the region, to be worried about the destabilization of the political situation in Macedonia,” Lyubomir Kyuchukov says. “Processes in the Balkans have their own characteristics when it comes to confrontation on ethnic and religious grounds, and are very difficult to control, even by those forces involved in the processes. We have examples of this - Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo; the problems in Macedonia some 15 years ago. All this directly affects the stability of the region. Here comes the main question: Is Bulgaria doing enough for the overall development of the Bulgarian-Macedonian relations in terms of stability in the region? In my opinion erasing accumulated historical, ethnic, religious and cultural contradictions and conflicts in the wider community of the EU, where borders are irrelevant, can lead to long-term solutions and addressing the destabilizing potential of the Western Balkans. The most important thing today is preventing further destabilization of Macedonia and stabilizing its statehood. Breakup processes could ignite the whole Balkan region. Therefore Bulgaria is interested in the light of its own development and stability in the EU integration of all the countries of the Western Balkans.”

The safest solution of real bilateral issues is not adding more conditions to the process of integration, but calling on the Republic of Macedonia to meet the EU membership criteria. Those criteria include good neighbor relations.

English: Alexander Markov


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