In its spring report, the European Commission affirms its macroeconomic forecast of the growth rate of the Bulgarian economy for this and next year, while at the same time expecting domestic consumption to continue to be the main growth driver.
The new Commission report reads that the real GDP growth remained robust in 2016 at 3.4 percent, driven by buoyant net exports and private consumption. In contrast, investment growth was significantly negative at -4 percent in 2016, mainly due to a low absorption of EU funds.
In 2017, real GDP growth is projected to reach 2.9 percent, as in the winter forecast, and then slightly taper off to 2.8 percent in 2018, affirming the winter forecast. Domestic demand is expected to be the main growth engine, driven in particular by private consumption and investment following the acceleration in EU funds absorption under the 2014-2020 EU programming period.
Risks to the growth outlook are broadly balanced, the report reads. As a domestic downside risk, a significantly slower than expected implementation of EU funds could dent investment and growth. Given the openness of the economy, weaker import demand from the main trading partners, especially in Europe, and surging oil prices would pose external downside risks. On the upside, stronger-than expected consumer confidence and faster progress with reforms could lift real growth rates, the European Commission spring forecast indicates.
Although bilateral trade reached nearly $4 billion last year, there are still untapped opportunities to further increase Bulgarian exports to China. This was made clear at a meeting between the Minister of Economy and Industry, Mr. Petko Nikolov, and..
Housing loans in Bulgaria increased by 24.8% year-on-year, reaching BGN 22.3 billion (EUR 11.4 billion) by the end of June 2024, according to the BGNES news agency. Consumer loans also rose by 14% year-on-year compared to June 2023, reaching BGN..
Bulgaria’s real GDP growth is expected to stand at 2.1% in 2024, indicates the macroeconomic forecast of the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) in June. Bulgaria’s real GDP growth is expected to stand at 2.1 per cent in 2024, driven by the positive..
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has slightly lowered its growth forecasts for the regions in which it invests. Bulgaria's..
+359 2 9336 661