Three months before the elections for European Parliament which will take place in Bulgaria on 25 May we are witnessing a gradual shift from protests to election campaigning. This is the way political analyst Purvan Simeonov from the Institute of Social Values and Structures describes the month of February in political terms. But he is very doubtful that European political issues will actually come into the pre-election debates. These elections are in fact viewed as a litmus test for domestic issues, and they will affect the stability of the ruling formation that incorporates the Bulgarian Socialist Party, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms and Ataka party, the expert comments for Radio Bulgaria.

“Above all these European elections are not like the previous ones. We shall see a match between the pro- and the anti-government forces. Another symmetrical, almost bipolar picture of the political process is also taking shape where the confrontation is almost completely balanced. That means the elections will be a hotly contested race for political supremacy even without a prospect of early general elections. Moreover, this contest seems to be everywhere. Not just between the two biggest parties – the Bulgarian Socialist Party and GERB. There are two smaller formations to the left and to the right – ABV and the Reformist Bloc. But there is also tough competition between the nationalistic formations Ataka and the NFSB – the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria. There is a new party – Bulgaria without Censorship– that is now in coalition with a small but predictable party – the VMRO. All this makes the European elections a contest with unusual stakes. The major race that is taking shape is between the two biggest blocs – left and right wing – but also at all other levels. But this is also a contest that will provide the answer to the question: will there be early general elections in the country? Three indispensable factors that suggest that these European elections will be a litmus test for domestic issues and that European affairs will have very little part in them.”

Can we say the political situation is more stable now?

“It is more stable in February – the anti-government protests have dwindled, even disappeared almost. After one whole year of political crisis, the political problems now seem no longer to be out in the streets and squares, but inside the institutions. The institutional tensions between the administration and the president have remained. There is also tension inside the ruling formation, something we saw during the debates on the new election code. The Bulgarian Socialist Party has been having problems in its rear with the emergence of ABV, the formation of former socialist President Georgi Parvanov. As we have been saying for months, the moment the outside problems subside, problems inside the party will emerge. So, February has been more stable in terms of mass civil protests, but less stable in terms of the parties themselves. To top it all, the European Parliament elections are almost upon us and each party is now toeing the line for the final sprint. And that only accumulates more tension.”

Are there any grounds to say there is an alternative to this government?

“Yes, GERB party stands a very real chance of winning the coming European elections which would be a very important symbolic victory. But most probably, the pro-government forces will harvest more votes at these elections, at least as things currently stand, due to the fact that the Movement for Rights and Freedoms is after three, if not more seats in European Parliament. Whereas GERB and the Bulgarian Socialist Party are currently hanging in the balance, while the Reformist Bloc is hardly likely to bring in more votes than the Movement for Rights and Freedoms. This leads me to conclude that there is a more likely hypothesis, though it is early days yet for reliable predictions – that the pro-government forces will have supremacy, i.e. that they will re-establish themselves. As to the two other factors that may bring down the parliamentary majority – Ataka inside the National Assembly and Nikolay Barekov’s Bulgaria without Censorship outside parliament, even though it now has two MPs who split away from the BSP and GERB and may be crucial to the quorum – it is still too early to say. All this means this government will have a few months of stability yet. And this stability will be reaffirmed at the European elections. But after them, debates on early elections will again flare up. Because whatever the resulting configuration it is hardly likely to be very stable or legitimate in the eyes of Bulgarians.”

English version: Milena Daynova