Is politics essential with all this shuttle diplomacy or is it all about the gas interests of Russia, the EU and the USA? Now it’s the time for a redrawing of Europe’s gas map and players that have been waiting for a long time are ready to enter the game. The administration of US President Obama stated that it was the right time for taking away of one of Putin’s major geopolitical weapons. On the other hand Gazprom threatened Europe with another gas crisis like the 2009 one, alluding that without South Stream it cannot avoid the risks with the transfer of gas via Ukraine. Europe started to look like a sandwich, squeezed between its common interests with Russia and the US push for gas supplies to the EU.

No matter what they say, it’s all about ... gas

The South Stream gas pipeline through Bulgaria will be among the first victims in case of sanctions for Russia and might be blocked, international analysts comment. If a ban is imposed on the import of Russian gas, Europe will look for other suppliers – this is something that Moscow will never allow. It used the crisis in Ukraine, playing with the prices of gas and the debts towards Gazprom with the idea to press the country to sell its gas pipeline. Thus Russian gas won’t depend on the transit through Ukraine. Moscow has a second trump card in its sleeve in this battle for the European gas markets – the construction of South Stream that should circumvent Ukraine with gas supplies for Europe. That is why Moscow had activated its energy diplomacy over the recent months, as the goal was to hurry up with the gas pipeline before the EU member-states involved in the project have met the requirements of the new EU energy legislation. If South Stream doesn’t get kicked off in 2015 Moscow will have to return at its starting position and to depend on Ukraine again. On the other hand the blue fuel supplies will be endangered once again. This will be another trump of Russia, trying to persuade the EU that Ukraine should be circumvented. I.e., South Stream…

Cards on the table.

Gazprom has started to talk on the growing debts of Ukraine for gas supplied and how those are a prerequisite on a new gas crisis in Europe. The EU has reacted, promising to help Ukraine with the payment of those USD 2 bln. The USA has also confirmed the granting of USD 1 bln. as a part of an international loan. The Visegrad Four on the other hand requested directly US gas from Washington, in order to reduce its dependence on Gazprom. This encouraged Washington to use its huge deposits of blue fuel against Russia’s influence in Europe. The creation of a European gas chart was kicked off with the goal of a quick transfer of gas from the USA to Europe. The idea is the liquefied US natural gas to reach Greece.

The EU rules.

The Bulgarian government supports the construction of South Stream, crossing our territory. PM Oresharski commented during his meeting with Putin in Sochi that “we do want this project to be implemented within the deadlines determined”. At the same time the EU criticizes Bulgaria on its orientation to Russia on key issues, such as energy security. The active role of Sofia within the Russian South Stream project is being focused, despite the EC objections. Bulgarian MPs are currently preparing changes in the Law on Energy. Experts claim that this aims at a circumvention of the EU regulations on South Stream, because the definition “intersystem connections” will be replaced by “interconnector”. The latter’s EU regulation registers allowances.

South Stream doesn’t solve the problem of the West.

Experts are on the other pole. They link South Stream to the problems in Ukraine. If Kiev gives to Gazprom the right of a seamless transit and control over the gas pipelines, the project will become meaningless. It will be better for Bulgaria if South Stream’s construction never starts. This means the saving of huge funds, the avoiding of Brussels’ sanctions, as well as of eventual Russian claims. The project remains impossible with this confrontation between the EU and Russia. The West will cease South Stream, because one of its main goals was to deprive Ukraine from gas transit. According to energy expert Ilian Georgiev there is no other more direct form of support for the Ukrainian budget – we are talking about some USD 3 bln. each year. In the other case the West will have to dope the Ukrainian economy. Actually South Stream doesn’t solve any problem of Europe. One way or another gas quantities are supplied now either.

English version: Zhivko Stanchev