Bulgaria has succeeded within a year only to develop a model for prognostication of manpower demand in the middle and long term period – up to 2018 and 2028 respectively. In other countries it takes quite a few years of solid scientific teams’ hard work. Four people here in Bulgaria have created a math model, outlining the sectors with new jobs’ potential and the demand for employees with certain qualifications. It is grounded on data of the national statistics, the NSSI, the NRA and established international and European practices.

“We try to foresee labor market’s needs within this project,” Social Minister Hasan Ademov. “Also, the characteristics that manpower should possess in order for the following situation to be avoided: business offers vacancies on one hand and labor market fails to respond on the other, due to manpower’s qualification. Thus we will see what type of experts are wanted and this will affect professional high schools and universities’ entrance. This is a way for overcoming the notorious discrepancy between manpower offered by the educational system and the requirements of business.”

This country’s economy will need the most high school graduates with some professional qualification, data of the model show. This is also envisaged in the dual system prepared with theory and practice going side by side. Low qualified manpower faces small chances of employment. The greatest number of vacancies will be open by 2018 in the spheres of commerce, car repairs, education, construction, transport etc., data says. This will reduce for sure the number of unemployed that now exceed the number 400,000. According to data of the employment agency, about 50 percent of those, or 180,000 people, registered at labor bureaus have basic or lower education level. This country’s labor market will continue to feel the hunger for doctors, engineers, IT experts, teachers etc. Things cannot be different, since each 4^th university graduate works abroad, experts of the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce say. Iskren Angelov, head of the project, points out.

“In 2018 the greatest number of university graduates will be employed in the economic sphere; the educational one will give jobs to 135,000 experts; the trade and repair of cars economic activity comes 3^rd with 90,000 jobs prognosticated. The sphere of state governing comes next, followed by the social security system, the spheres of insurance and healthcare. High school graduates will be wanted in the car trade and repair business. The construction sector comes next with a growth potential displayed there, with an opening of new jobs in the short term.”

Other perspective sectors with job opportunities: transport, logistics, textile industry, services, tourism, production of foods, drinks and tobacco. Detailed data on the educational sphere comes to show that over the next four years the greatest demand will be for high school teachers in the grades 5 – 12. Cashiers with university diplomas will be wanted in the sphere of finances, while healthcare managers, nurses and midwives will be needed in the system of healthcare.

English version: Zhivko Stanchev