The West has tightened economic sanctions on Russia over Ukraine. According to an International Monetary Fund report, Bulgaria is one of the countries hit hardest and is already suffering the consequences.

15,000 – 20,000 Russian tourists will not be spending their summer vacation on the Bulgarian Black Sea. The reason – the default of many Russian tour operators. Because of the waning ruble and the declining purchasing capacity of Russia’s citizens, many have changed their plans of vacationing abroad. According to the IMF report Cyprus and Montenegro are the other two countries in similar circumstances, with the abovementioned three countries visited by the greatest number of Russian tourists who are a tangible factor in their economies. The tourist industry is not the only sector experiencing a slump. IMF experts have calculated that Russia’s capital investments exceed 5 percent of the GDP of Bulgaria, Belarus, Moldova and Montenegro. It was announced this week that the Russian Lukoil was withdrawing from the markets of the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Hungary. By special decree, Vladimir Putin retaliated against the sanctions put in place by the EU and USA, and Moscow imposed a ban of one year on farming produce, raw material and food imports from the countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia. The EU’s sanctions aim to achieve a review of Russia’s foreign policy with regard to the Ukraine crisis. In the long-term Moscow’s economic isolation is supposed to turn Russian citizens against their own president – Putin. Whether they are on the right track is quite another matter. One thing is clear – the EU will have to have buckets of patience because latest surveys show that support for Vladimir Putin in Russia is by no means declining. But tension among the countries members of the EU is mounting, because the latest sanctions against Russia are having a different effect on the economies of the different members. No one knows how long the compromise on imposing sanctions, a compromise so difficult to achieve, may last if the gas supplies to the East European countries are cut off for good. Moreover, the EU countries have different, purely historically-motivated bonds with Russia, which have developed into economic relations. An illustration of this is the controversial South Stream project, supported by the previous Bulgarian government, but also by Italy, Austria and Hungary. A project that is casting its long shadow over some of the EU’s political decisions like the choice of a new EU foreign policy chief. The nomination of Italy’s Foreign Minister Mogherini is not to the liking of the Baltic countries precisely because of her pro-Russian leanings and her support for South Stream. The bickering over the top positions in the new European Commission is not something that can concern the man in the street but the effect of the sanctions against Russia will sooner or later come to bear. Evidently, Brussels currently has a mind to confront Russia very vigorously. But will the EU be able to react to any change in the sentiments of its citizens? At this time there is nothing to show that the Union has a clear overview of the way things are unfolding and can cast an eye several steps ahead. And it is by no means clear who has the trump card in the escalating Brussels-Moscow bout.

English version: Milena Daynova