The autumn economic forecasts for Bulgaria of the Ministry of Finance, and a little later of the European Commission were released a few days ago. Neither forecast shows the slightest trace of optimism or of the enthusiasm of their spring editions and the expectations of analysts are that much closer to painting the truthful bleak picture of reality. There is one fact that shows how dramatically analysts have been waking up to reality and the extent of their pessimism – the current European GDP growth forecast for the year is 30 whole percent lower than the previous forecast. These figures are corroborated by the pro-government experts at the Ministry of Finance.

The economic growth rate forecasts for next year draw a picture that is even bleaker. Bulgarian financiers have chopped their springtime expectations by half whereas European economists have come up with figures that are even more dramatic – they have cut their expectations of a GDP increase for Bulgaria in 2015 three times!

The reasons for these grim forecasts for this year and the markedly negative forecasts for next year are rooted in one single factor that can be put into just two words: political instability. Whereas for the figures for this year this is but a display of realism and recognition of hard facts, with regard to the forecasts for next year, it is a reflection of expert assessments of the country’s future development and the potential of the new administration after the latest early general election. It is plain to see that most experts analyzing the economic and political picture in Bulgaria are not expecting any positive signs to emerge in the foreseeable future. On the contrary, the opinion is prevalent that things will only get worse. Seen in political terms, this means the current National Assembly and the new government have no credibility, that the indispensable radical reforms promised will not come to pass, that no one believes the political slogans and empty promises.

That is something clearly delineated in the evaluations made by analysts of the budget deficit, which are seen as evaluations of the policy conducted by the administration and its ability to govern the country and operate with public funds. There is not the shred of a doubt that the EU's ceiling of 3 percent of the GDP will this year be exceeded. That means the money shortage and spending on credit will be higher than European standards. The amended forecasts for 2015 and 2016, when the administration is not expected to be able to control or administer public revenue and expenditure any better, are just as dire. This will inevitably lead to more government debt, making the lurking shadow of a Greek financial disaster in Bulgaria more and more real.

That the months and years to come are going to be difficult is something the man in street is also aware of. According to the latest National Statistical Institute survey on consumer attitudes, the expectations for 2015 are of a rise in the cost of living and in unemployment rates and cuts in spending on durables and real estate.

Whereas the avalanche of ever-lurking disasters in power generation and healthcare, in the social sphere and demography, the perturbations in the banking sphere and the top-tier corruption scandals dashes all hope of any light at the end of the tunnel any time soon or of any improvement in the life of the poorest nation in the EU, 25 years after the country was rid of totalitarianism to embark on the road of market economy.

English: Milena Daynova