Three months ago Bulgaria’s Premier Boyko Borissov voiced hopes that the country’s economy would mark a 4.5% growth in 2016. Later, the National Statistical Institute published official data about the growth of the gross domestic product in 2015. The national economy marked a decent 3 % increase, which, however, is still far from Premier Borissov’s target. Recently the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance announced an updated version of its three- year economic forecast 2015-2017, which is far less optimistic. On the contrary, it turned out that the country’s economy has already reached its peak and from now on the GDP growth is expected to slow down to under 2% on an annual basis. This is not good news at all, because being the poorest EU member state Bulgaria has to catch up with the other countries in the union. However, a meager growth of 2% or under would not help that country shorten the gap with the other more developed states any time soon, which dooms the current and the future generations to poverty and deprivations. The plans of the authorities to increase gradually the pensions and the minimum salary in Bulgaria with a small percentage bring small consolation. However, the planned increase of the state pensions is likely to fluctuate between 1% and 3% on an annual basis and the minimum wages are to grow with nearly 10%. Unfortunately, these steps would neither make the elderly people, who receive an average of EUR 150 a month, nor the low skilled Bulgarians who work for just over EUR 200, much happier.

However, the new three-year economic forecast of the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance does not pay detailed attention to such less significant indicators from a macroeconomic point of view. It rather uses terms such as budget deficit, inflation, fiscal reserves, foreign debt, etc. Economic and financial observers note that the economic assumptions and expectations are extremely moderate and there aren’t any forecasts pointing to significant economic upsurge, yet the forecasts do not foresee any threats as well. According to an economic observer who is highly critical towards the current cabinet, the economy is to crawl on the bottom. The budget deficit will decrease with at least 0.5% per year and the country’s foreign debt will continue to grow slowly. Inflation will be very insignificant and the unemployment levels would be acceptable and would not stir any social problems in Bulgaria.

In fact, the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance is not the only institution which has moderate expectations about the country’s economic growth. The European Commission also published cautious forecasts about the GDP growth in Bulgaria. There are serious indications that the new version of Bulgaria’s three-year economic forecast has been developed together with experts from Brussels. In other words, these expectations and forecasts are much closer to reality than Premier Borissov’s dreams about a 4.5% GDP growth. Of course, the country’s economy has the potential to mark a higher than forecasted growth. Bulgaria has many unused potential in the economy and the business sphere. There are many highly-qualified engineers and IT experts and the Bulgarian software companies are among the most successful start-up companies worldwide. The automotive industry in that country has been marking a great upsurge recently and the tourism sector has started to recover and is about to welcome a record-high number of foreign guests. The country’s agriculture has a huge unused potential to produce organic products. A small doze of positive thinking is always good, because good ideas need positive thinking and attitude.

English version: Kostadin Atanasov