The GDP growth rate in Bulgaria this year will be 2.6 percent, the Ministry of Finance says. The prestigious credit rating agency Moody’s gives a better forecast – 2.7 percent. But it is the International Monetary Fund that is most generous, saying that the Bulgarian economy will grow at the rate of an enviable 3 percent this year. These differences, measured in tenths of one percent, may not seem significant but when these figures concern a GDP of over 45 billion euro, even one hundredth of one percent makes a difference because it means a lot of money. Nonetheless, all three autumn forecasts have one thing in common – they are better than the spring forecasts.

What are these if not significant, at least tangible differences in the evaluation and expectations of experts due to?

It is the singularly conservative evaluation by the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance that raises eyebrows most. Its current forecast may be better than its spring forecast, yet in recent months both Finance Minister Vladislav Goranov and Prime Minister Boyko Borissov have been declaring over and over again, that the growth in Bulgaria’s economy this year will be record-high and will not drop below 3 percent. At one point, the prime minister got so carried away by his optimism that he started talking of 4 percent and over. This optimism now seems dampened and the ministry is explaining this away with the slowdown in consumption and the drop in public investments mostly because of the delay in European subsidies. The picture is expected to be even bleaker next year when there will be an additional slowing of economic growth.

Unlike the powers that be in Bulgaria, Moody’s never promised or predicted a cornucopia for the country. Bulgaria’s credit rating is on the modest side, discouraging potential investors. At least the agency did not downgrade the country’s credit rating as it did with quite a number of other more advanced and wealthier countries. The ratings agency is no less cautious in its forecasts of economic growth in Bulgaria this year – 2.7 percent – not bad for Europe but mediocre for the world.

However, the evaluation by the International Monetary Fund experts was the biggest surprise. Just 20 days ago or so they were in Bulgaria, inspected everyone and everything and ultimately upped their forecast to 3 percent. Whether they were infected by the optimism of the Bulgarian authorities or discovered some kind of hidden advantages in Bulgaria’s economy is hard to say. What is clear, however is that all three institutions agree that the end of the good times of more dynamic growth is nigh and that as of next year there will be a slowdown. The opinion is prevalent that the main reason for this lies outside Bulgaria. The tensions internationally have been giving rise to fluctuations in the business world and wariness of log-term projects, the danger is very real of a considerable portion of the EU’s cohesion funds – a major source of public investments in Bulgaria – being reduced drastically and the money rechanneled to finance measures aimed at tackling the migration crisis. And all this will inevitably impact the Bulgarian economy, an economy that may be small but is very open and very sensitive to outside influence, an economy on which all adverse phenomena and tendencies on the international markets have a markedly painful effect.

English version: Milena Daynova