Bulgaria is ready to transit Russian gas, this country’s authorities announced before even receiving an official proposal by the Russian state energy giant Gazprom. Several days later the Greek authorities also voiced willingness to transit Russian gas through their territory. The extension of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline through Greece is quite realistic and possible, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said after the meeting in Moscow with Greece’s Premier Alexis Tsipras. The extension of the Turkish Stream pipeline may transfer gas to Central Europe via Bulgaria and Serbia or to Italy via Greece. According to estimates, the extension will transfer 15.8 billion cubic meters of Russian gas per year. For the purpose, Bulgaria will have to build its own 500 kilometer gas pipeline from the Bulgaria-Turkey border to the Bulgaria-Serbia border if Russia chooses the “Bulgarian option”. It would cost roughly around USD 1.6 billion, the Russian newspaper Kommersant, which informed about Gazprom’s plans first, writes.

If Russia choses the second route through Greece, the Russian gas will be transited mainly through the already built Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Let us remind only that in 2014 the South Stream gas pipeline project, which had to transfer over 60 billion cubic meters of Russian gas per year through Bulgarian territory failed under the pressure of the EU and the USA. Back then, some experts doubted the economic benefits for Bulgaria. Now Greece showed its intentions to compete with Bulgaria, which makes things even more difficult. Some economists and energy experts assume that the extension of Turkish Stream through Bulgaria and Serbia would be more reasonable and paying, but we have no information about the economic parameters of the extension and so far Russia’s geostrategic ambitions and Bulgaria’s plans to build a Balkan gas hub on the Black Sea coast that would redistribute gas from Russia, Azerbaijan and Greece to Europe prevail. Thus, Bulgaria will have stronger economic and political influence in Europe, the Bulgarian government contends. Bulgaria’s Deputy Premier Tomislav Donchev said: It is important and good for Bulgaria to preserve its role as a gas distributor not only for revenue but also for national security, and this country should not be surrounded by all gas pipeline routes. But how Bulgaria can benefit from the possible construction of an extension of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline on its territory? Apparently, this country will be able to collect transit fees above all. However, these revenues were questioned even when we were talking about the failed South Stream gas project which was four times larger than the current option. So far nobody told anything about the expected revenues from gas transit. Bulgaria’s Minister of Energy Temenuzhka Petkova evasively said that the indicative profit for Bulgaria in the next 20 years would amount to nearly EUR 2.2 billion. However, this profit seems low, taking into consideration the money Bulgaria has to invest for the construction of the gas pipeline infrastructure. Moreover, this country has to made urgent investments, because the extension of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline has to be ready by the end of 2019 if Russia chooses to transit gas through Bulgarian territory.

As of the Balkan gas distribution hub, it entered Bulgaria’s newly-adopted National Energy Strategy. Its construction may cost nearly EUR 1.5 billion. However, it is not completely clear yet how much Bulgaria would earn from possible transit of gas to Europe.

At this stage we have not received serious economic arguments about the profitability of the possible extension of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline via Bulgaria. The process may be still in its initial phase, but the time for estimates and calculations is limited, because the project has to be fulfilled in short terms if Russia chooses the “Bulgarian option”. The Bulgarian authorities must make the right calculations this time and avoid the mistakes made in relation to the failed South Stream gas pipeline. However, it may turn out that all efforts will be in vain, if Russia prefers the Greek route of the new gas pipeline.

English version: Kostadin Atanasov