As of today – 27 September – the campaign for regular local elections is kicking off in Bulgaria. Voting will be in two rounds – the first on 27 October for electing mayors and municipal councilors, and the second – on 3 November for mayors in towns and villages where none of the candidates has earned more than 50 percent of the valid votes cast at the first round.

A total of 6,227,901 voters are entitled to vote, and the total number of candidates for the various posts in local government is 36,288. The biggest number of candidates are for mayor of Sofia (19) and of Plovdiv (14). In 397 municipalities there is only one candidate. A total of 66 formations – 59 parties and 7 coalitions – have been registered at the Central Electoral Commission for the local elections.

According to the latest poll by Alpha Research, 46.9 percent of respondents say they are adamant they will vote. Attitudes in favour of preserving the status quo or of changes in local government are highly polarized. 40.9 percent say they would prefer to see the current mayor continue at the head of their municipality, 47.3 say they want a new mayor. In big cities attitudes in favour of a change are stronger (68 as against 32 percent), in mid-sized towns the margin is smaller (56 as against 44 percent), and in small towns and villages the scales are tipped in favour of the current mayors (51 as against 49 percent). On the basis of these figures analysts are predicting that in the bigger municipalities, the elections will be intriguing and highly contested. The answers to the question “what is the alternative to the ruling party GERB” are highly fragmented – 17 percent say it is the Bulgarian Socialist Party, 4.9 percent – Democratic Bulgaria, 3.8 percent – the United Patriots, and 8.9 percent – another political force.

The large number of alternative local players is expected to be a serious factor. Around 10 percent of the voters say they are inclined to vote for such lists or candidates for mayors, in places this percentage reaches 15. Protest votes, so widespread in the country, are not so frequent nor do they carry the same reasoning at local elections as they do at a general election. 37.2 percent of respondents state that, for the sake of change, they are willing to rally around any other candidate and “against” the current mayor. 61.9percent say they are ready to cast their vote depending on the individual qualities of the candidates and on their political preferences rather than following the “against’ vote principle. Sociologists say that these sentiments are an indication that the rallying of the disgruntled is not an automatic process, especially when it is a question of tackling local problems.

But voters have certain specific preferences, registered by a survey by Trend agency. To the question whether it is better for the mayor of their town or village to be male or female, the biggest share – 48 percent – say that sex does not matter. However 36 percent of the respondents say it is better for the mayor to be a man, and only 10 percent want a woman for mayor. For 41 percent of the respondents the age of the candidates does not matter, while 40 percent prefer their mayor to be young. 72 percent say it is very or quite important for the mayor to have been born in the same town or village and only 21 percent hold the opposite view.

However, the elections will hang most of all on the intentions of the candidates. To attain their goals locally, the political parties have been demonstrating great aptitude for major compromises. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is giving free rein to its district, municipal and regional structures to form coalitions locally, the only prohibition being not to enter into coalition with the ruling GERB party. Allied in the executive with the nationalist coalition “United Patriots”, for the local elections in the capital city Sofia GERB is running together with the Union of Democratic Forces. Two of the partners from the “United Patriots” – the VMRO and the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria (NFSB) – will be running together at the local elections in just one-third of municipalities, in no single municipality will they be together with Ataka party, and in all municipalities they will be against the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS). The convoluted and controversial picture at the start of the election campaign makes any predictions difficult. However, one thing is certain – it will be a hard-fought battle.