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Russia may not have the resources necessary to launch a large-scale offensive operation: ISW

Ukrainian soldiers firing from a position near Bakhmur, Donetsk region, 4 February, 2023
Photo: EPA/BGNES

Ukrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale offensive in Donetsk Oblast in the current circumstances of the Russian Armed Forces, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War writes. Russian forces’ reported culmination and tactical failures around Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast, have likely further weakened the Russian ultranationalist community’s belief that Russian forces are able to launch a decisive offensive operation, the ISW analysis reads.

In just three days of the offensive near Vuhledar and Avdiivka, the Russian invaders lost at least 103 units of military equipment. Among the losses were 36 battle tanks, according to the Dutch OSINT project Oryx. The ratio of Russian and Ukrainian losses by the evening of February 10 was about 5:1, the analysis reads

National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that Russia had already begun its major offensive in Ukraine's east, but that it faces “big problems” with it, Kyiv Independent writes. In a comment on the words of Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin that Russia was ready to engage with Ukraine, “but there should not be any preconditions for talks that should be based on the existing reality”, Oleksiy Danilov commented: “Ukraine is not Korea. There will be no 38s and other parallels, other people's stories and scenarios imposed from the outside.”

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov have discussed “priorities,” including air defense and artillery, ahead of the Ramstein–format 14 February meeting of Kyiv’s allies in Brussels, the two sides have stated. 



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