GDP growth in Bulgaria will be 1.9% in 2023, slowing to half the 3.9% rate in 2022. Domestic demand and net exports will contribute to growth. Annual inflation will be 6.1 per cent. These are the expectations of analysts at the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), published in the latest issue of the quarterly "Macroeconomic Forecast". 

The November growth estimate has been revised upwards by 0.9 per cent compared to the previous analysis in June. GDP growth is expected to reach 2.7 per cent in 2024 and 3.6 per cent in 2025, with the November estimate revised downwards by 0.5 per cent from the June forecast. The pessimistic prognosis reflects the risks posed by global geopolitical conflicts and rising wage costs.

BNB governor Dimitar Radev recommended that the 2024 budget include a 10% buffer, which, if not spent during the year, would be spent in the last quarter of 2024.