Nobody can predict what will happen in Crimea next. The situation there is so risky that any forecasts on its impact on Bulgarian tourism are impossible. Furthermore, the branch does rely on Ukrainian and Russian tourists, who see Bulgaria as a top tourist destination. Should we expect some reflux through the season? Experts tend to say “yes”.

Tour operators and mayors of Black Sea municipalities register an alarming drop of early bookings. Some of them even say there are large-scaled cancellations, as far as Ukraine and Russia are concerned. Last year we marked a 14 percent growth of Ukrainian tourists and over 200,000 of those visit Bulgaria each year, 35 percent of them with the purpose of tourism. Ukraine on the other hand is a transit country for many Russians on their way to the Black Sea seaside and the southern Turkish resorts. However, the escalation of the tension in the region causes concerns about individual car trips and organized bus voyages. Lots of Bulgarian resorts rely on camps for children that are filled in at the very beginning of the season, when tourist inflow is still tiny. Now their owners wonder what contracts they will sign for the next summer. Furthermore – the branch is alarmed by the eventual EU sanctions on Russia, related mostly to the visa regime, which will limit seriously the access of Russian tourists here. An eventual collapse of local markets would mean serious damages to local tourism, some people say. Chair of Institute for Analyses and Assessments in Tourism Roumen Draganov sees, however, the light in the end of the tunnel. In his words Bulgaria’s trump against this reflux can be found in holiday accommodations. Tens of thousands of people from these two countries own their second house in Bulgaria, Draganov claims. According to him these people will opt for a vacation in their homes, in our beautiful, cheap and above all – peaceful Bulgaria.

“Bulgaria is a destination that offers safety,” Draganov goes on to say. “So, families with children are expected to arrive here, in order to use the houses purchased as a second home. Their investment can be used without any additional expenses by their friends, relatives, colleagues… At the same time prices in Bulgaria are much lower than the ones in Ukraine or Russia…”

However, it is unlikely this increasing interest to holiday accommodations to compensate the tourist reflux expected. The tension has been on the rise these days, when Bulgarian companies cancelled on a large scale their already declared participation at the forthcoming tourist exchange in Kiev. The reason given: the situation in the area. At the same time the organizers of the 20^th jubilee edition of the forum have stated that it will take place with 658 participants from 61 countries. No one can say why Bulgarian tour operators give up their engagement within one of the most significant tourist exchanges in the region at this critical point, when they have to uphold their positions on this so important for us market. Furthermore, Ukrainian and Russian tourists are wanted guests here, as most of them are relatively wealthy middle-class representatives. Perhaps that is why other analysts do not expect such a huge collapse, as they say that the market in region is so vast that it will always find people, willing to spend their holiday there. Maybe the drop in early bookings will be compensated later on? As we know, Ukrainians and Russians are quite unpredictable in their holiday plans and usually opt for a destination in the last minute. So, we only have to wait now and see what happens…

English version: Zhivko Stanchev