The Bulgarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has published data on the number of Bulgarian citizens abroad. There are 2 417 000 Bulgarians living abroad, as just in the EU their number is more than 1.5 million. According to the report of the ministry, 400 000 Bulgarians have left this country in the past 7 years.

How are emigration numbers calculated and what is the exact number of Bulgarians abroad? Clearly, these questions are key to organizing the European Parliament elections in May. Correctness of methodologies reflecting migration processes is also very important for the upcoming national census in 2021. In order to find out what stands behind the statistics, we met Associate Prof. Spas Tashev from the Institute for Population and Human Studies at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. According to him, data provided by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs about the number of Bulgarians living abroad have surprised the scientific community in this country. Here is what he told us:

“The biggest migration figures were registered in the period 1985 -1992, which is understandable due to the mass expulsion of Bulgarian Turks. During that period an average of 66,000 people left the country annually. After that migration balance started to shrink. By 2013, there were just 1,100 emigrants per year and because of this we predicted that in 2015-20 we would have a slightly positive migration balance. Unfortunately, these predictions did not come true. Over the past 2 years there has been a rise in the number of people leaving the country and it has reached 4,000-5,000 people per year. But we cannot talk about large migratory losses and mass exodus, as statistics by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs suggest.”

How are figures calculated and should we regard Bulgarians living in the EU as emigrants, as freedom of movement and choice of place of living is a fundamental right in the union?

“The big issue is that we do not have a precise mechanism for taking into account current migration processes. In the modern world there exist daily international migrations because there are people who leave their country in the morning and return at the end of the working day. There are weekly and seasonal migrations, too. From the point of view of statistics, an emigrant is considered someone who has spent more than one year on the territory of a foreign country. Nowadays, statisticians are arguing if emigration within the EU should be seen as such or whether it is a different type of population mobility. Whether these are migration losses for Bulgaria is still hard to tell because a large number of these people plan to come back.”

The demographic problem is not only Bulgarian one but it affects the entire EU. Despite disagreements between Western Europe and the countries of Eastern and Central Europe over accepting immigrants, is it possible for a common solution to be found?

“Last year, the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences did some serious work on a project for the demographic development of the country, including the search for resources to cope with the demographic crisis. In the past, Western Europe recruited labor resources through emigration from Central and Eastern Europe. But the emigration potential of this region has already been exhausted. The only regions that can offer young population are the Middle East, North and Sub-Saharan Africa, which is already changing the socio-cultural outlook of Europe. This undoubtedly gives rise to concerns among the citizens of these countries, whether this policy could solve demographic problems?”

According to Associate Prof. Spas Tashev, the demographic crisis is not caused so much by economic situation but by changes in the value system of modern Europeans. The key to addressing this issue is attitude towards children:

“In the past, children used to be a labor factor, especially in rural areas, whereas today their importance is seen in an emotional dimension. But at one point we must realize that children also affect economic dimensions because the number of future workers defines our pensions. From this point of view, I think that European society should be interested in raising internal birth rate, which would reproduce European cultural values ​​and ensure a more stable social system.”

English: Alexander Markov