According to the preliminary results of the European elections in Bulgaria announced by the Central Election Commission on Monday morning, five political parties will send MEPs to the next European Parliament. The results differ from the previous forecasts which showed that Bulgaria will be represented by four political parties in the new European Parliament.

The biggest surprise came from the Democratic Bulgaria coalition, which was regarded as an outsider before these elections. Moreover, with 99.48% of the protocols processed from the polling stations abroad this political party earns 28.75% of the votes of the Bulgarians living abroad.

The victory of the ruling GERB party, which entered into coalition with the Union of Democratic Forces for the European Elections, was expected. However, this coalition surprised with its categorical victory over the left-wing coalition BSP for Bulgaria.

Many people contend that the second place for BSP for Bulgaria at these elections is equal to a defeat, because of the big distance from the winner (GERB-SDS).

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms placed third at the European elections, which was in line with the previous forecasts. However, its result is higher than the result of the nationalistic formations (part of the United Patriots coalition) altogether.

The electoral result of VMRO-BNM is much higher than the results of the Patriots for Valeri Simeonov and Ataka party, which makes VMRO a leader in Bulgaria in the segment of nationalism and patriotism.

The voter turnout in Bulgaria can also be described as a surprise as compared to the voter turnout in other countries in Eastern Europe. While voter turnout in other European countries has increased significantly at the 2019 EP elections, voter turnout in Bulgaria fell below 32%. However, it may turn out that voter turnout is between 40% and 42% if the thesis of Alpha Research sociological agency that electoral lists are unrealistically large and that there are 5.1 million voters in Bulgaria, instead of 6.3 million, proves right.

The three political forces which earned highest results at the EP elections in Bulgaria belong to the three leading political families at the European Parliament: The European People’s Party (GERB-SDS), The Party of European Socialists (BSP for Bulgaria) and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (DPS).

The results of the European elections in Bulgaria will have an impact on the political life in this country. No alternative to the current government was born after the European elections. Thus, the thesis of the socialists for early Parliamentary elections and resignation of the Borissov 3 cabinet became irrelevant. The Bulgarian Socialist Party will have to find the answers of difficult questions instead – why it lags behind GERB so much, who will bear the responsibility for the latest results, was the aggressive line of conduct towards the government appropriate, etc.

The ruling coalition will continue governing this country, but it may go under some internal changes. The influence of VMRO in the government may increase due to the good performance of this party at the EP elections at the expense of the other two parties which are part of the United Patriots coalition (NFSB and Ataka) whose performance at the European elections was below expectations. GERB may even be tempted to attract to the government in some form representatives of the classical right-wing “political space”.

The good results of Democratic Bulgaria at the European elections may encourage the political forces of the right-wing political spectrum to make new attempts for unification.

The political parties will try to find answers to all these questions before the local elections in Bulgaria which will be held in the autumn of 2019. In other words, we are to witness a very interesting second half of the political 2019.

English version: Kostadin Atanasov