Will 2020 bring explosive crises, displacement of political strata and early elections? In the beginning of the year three political analysts- a historian, a lawyer and a university lecturer made their political forecasts in an interview for Radio Bulgaria.

According to the university lecturer Professor Nina Dyulgerova, the signs of increasing consolidation against the ruling party and the Bulgarian Premier are not likely to cause early parliamentary elections, but these processes may be a reason for cabinet reshuffles.

We are going to witness a stable instability, the Bulgarian historian adds. The ruling coalition should start getting rid of dependent people and people without professional qualification, because the proverb “lack amidst plenty” is becoming a kind of axiom for Bulgaria amidst the water crisis in Pernik, taking into consideration that this country is popular with over 2,000 springs. However, the huge bureaucracy is far from the professional standards. On the other hand, the professionals who have their own opinion, are not afraid to share it and are ready to work towards its fulfillment are not part of this mechanism.

Public debates on the goals that have to be achieved in Bulgaria should precede the next Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria, lawyer and political analyst Miroslav Popov contends.

The Bulgarian society is deeply wrong when it focuses on the early elections issue (which are quite possible) and fails to notice the public processes which are happening meanwhile. I approve early elections when they are preceded by a national debate on how far we have come. In my opinion, we have come to a very bad place, but the topic is not subject to public discussion.

The university lecturer and Associate Professor in international relations Georgi Chankov does not expect that the current model in Bulgaria will change. He pointed out that it is not so important whether early elections are to be held, or their result, because only the so-called system parties can make a request for power. No matter the pressure, abrupt political changes can only occur as a result of a dramatic change in the external government, Georgi Chankov contends.

Comparing Bulgaria with the countries from the Visegrad Group, which are trying to defend their national interest and follow their own national strategy for development, we have not yet formulated our national development strategy, Associate Professor Georgi Chankov comments. Our membership in the European Union became an end in itself and we have not started to view this membership as a means to a goal, because our goal is not clear. Speaking of the political leadership of the country, its goal is to buy a few more months or one or two years of political time-nothing more. For that purpose, it is ready to pay USD 2 billion for the purchase of F-16 fighter aircraft which are expected to be delivered in the future. Formulating a national strategy is a task that is yet to come, but I am afraid we are too late. We may be utterly unprepared to step into a new reality that may come as early as in 2020 or 2021, because we do not have a goal and a direction to follow. We will be swimming towards a vague and happy green future with clean and preserved nature, but perhaps with no Bulgarians.

English version: Kostadin Atanasov