As crisis after crisis pummels the government of Prime Minister Kiril Petkov - an unlikely coalition of four parties that do not see eye to eye on a host of critical issues - many are saying the cabinet may fall, some are even talking of early elections.

“You know, people have been saying from day one, from the day it was formed, that this cabinet will come down. As you can see it hasn’t. And what I can say is that I do not believe it will,” PM Petkov said during his visit to Kyiv, Ukraine.

• Bulgaria is ready to repair Ukrainian military equipment, Ukraine can supply cheap electricity

But the gas crisis, the war in Ukraine, the controversy over whether Bulgaria should send Ukraine military aid, the soaring prices have all combined to make for an uncertain future.

“Yesterday, Russia threatened two of our allies (Poland and Bulgaria – editorial note) with a cut off of energy supplies,” US President Joe Biden wrote on social media last night. “Let me be clear: We will not let Russia intimidate or blackmail their way out of sanctions. And we will not allow them to use their oil to avoid consequences for their aggression.”

• Russia suspends natural gas supplies to Bulgaria

As Bulgaria’s energy company Bulgargaz received a notification that as of April 27, natural gas deliveries from Russia’s Gazprom Export would be suspended, Lena Borislavova, Head of the Prime Minister’s Political Cabinet, said for the BNR: “There are no grounds for concern. Bulgaria’s government has been prepared for such a scenario for months.”

Meanwhile, Kornelia Ninova, Minister of Economy and Industry and leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party,one of the four parties that form the ruling coalition, held a meeting with employer organizations in Bulgaria, after which she stated that the employer organizations were pushing for a resumption of talks with Gazprom, and a resumption of the gas supplies. Minister Ninova said further that the Bulgarian Socialist Party would propose that a ceiling or a freezing of gas prices be introduced at their current level until the supplies get restored, and also that the increased prices of gas from alternative supplies should be compensated for by the state.

• The price of gas for May in Bulgaria could go up by 35%

“Halting the flow of gas may be the best thing that has happened to Bulgaria in recent years,”comments financial analyst Svetozar Gledachev for the BNR, and adds that it is probably the only way the country can wean itself off its dependence on Russia for gas and oil.

“Whichever way the war may go, dependence on Russia as a source of fossil fuels will be reduced dramatically, and in some countries even severed,” Svetozar Gledachev says and adds: “Gas does not affect Bulgaria’s energy mix in the least.”

“Unlike other countries, gas constitutes 14% of the energy mix in this country, but they are important because they are socially significant and partially power the industry,” political analyst Yavor Siderov on his part says. “The impact of the cut-off of gas has a much more direct social effect. It goes with a social cost, and that cost will be felt next winter. In industry it is being felt right now. But, on the whole, it is no disaster,” Yavor Siderov says.

“I expect Russian gas to start flowing again towards Bulgaria within a fortnight,” says energy expert Vasko Nachev. “There is no reason behind this act. What are the Russians going to do with that gas? Russia has to accept the possibility of total catastrophe of the gas industry or they have to take a step back.”

In his words when the war is over, the gas market will collapse, there will be a surplus and prices will plummet, so that Russia will be forced to resort to dumping.

“The issues of gas and weapons are not going to bring down the government,” social anthropologist Vasil Garnizov from New Bulgarian University comments. “Because regarding gas and weapons we are in one big global team, and are playing centre-field.”

• PM Kiril Petkov expects parliament to approve military aid for Ukraine

“What we are seeing is an abrupt emancipation of the government, formed around the party We Continue the Change, from President Rumen Radev,” political analyst Yavor Siderov says.

• Assen Vassilev: The President’s position that by giving weapons to Ukraine we are prolonging the conflict is ignominious

“As well as a very obvious divide – whether to buy Russian gas under the new Gazprom conditions. The masks are down. We can now see who is who, who is playing for what, who is ready to act in times when things have come to a pretty pass,” Yavor Siderov says and adds: “Early elections are not an option right now, but there may be shifts and a cabinet reshuffle.”

“The question is whether there can be a new parliamentary majority, or whether the foreign policy problems, in which Bulgaria is bound to be involved, are having an impact on the configuration within the National Assembly,” political scientist and lecturer at the University of Veliko Turnovo Prof. Todor Galunov says. “With regard to the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine, there may be incidental majorities, i.e. a certain reformatting of parliament is possible. What we are seeing is that there is a very clear dividing line between the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the other partners in the coalition,” Prof Galunov said and added, that during the past 30 years of Bulgaria’s history, price shocks have been the easiest way for governments to come down.

Meanwhile, Bulgarian Socialist Party leader Kornelia Ninova stated, once again, that if the Council of Ministers votes for the sending of military aid to Ukraine, the Bulgarian Socialist Party will leave the coalition, but added that we should wait and see how the National Assembly will vote on the matter next Wednesday. 

Interviews by Horizont channel, BNR

Editing and translation from Bulgarian: Milena Daynova