The trend towards changing the world order, disregard for international law and a preference for the use of military force as a mechanism to achieve political goals continues. This is stated in the 2023 report of Bulgaria's Military Intelligence Service. 

"These destabilizing factors have arisen primarily as a result of the actions of Russia as well as other authoritarian states." The Kremlin's aim to reassert its influence in the post-Soviet space and its use of military force create long-term preconditions for militarizing international relations, the document adds.

Regionally, Russia's war against Ukraine is characterized by two main trends - the Kremlin's increasing territorial claims and its drive towards a gradual escalation of armed conflict. The chances of achieving lasting peace through diplomacy were diminishing, the Military Intelligence Service pointed out. According to the report, Moscow's escalating nuclear rhetoric, along with its operations to discredit the arms control regime, increased the risks of nuclear conflict and/or a nuclear-powered technological catastrophe.

"Despite the serious efforts and commitment of the international community, tensions in the Western Balkans remain high. We do not rule out attempts to achieve foreign policy objectives through the use of military force and/or the redrawing of borders in formal compliance with international law. An indicator of this is the growing military potential of certain states. The main destabilising factors remain the lack of progress in dialogue and relations between Serbia and Kosovo and the destructive separatist actions of the Bosnian Serbs," the document reads.

"Migration flows to Europe, including through Bulgaria, have remained a persistent problem with a negative impact on the security environment. Due to the conflict in the Middle East, migration pressure to Europe along the Balkan and Mediterranean routes is increasing and the opportunities for exploiting migration processes in anti-EU hybrid operations have expanded," the Military Intelligence Service was quoted as saying by BTA.