Political analyst Ivo Indjov comments on the current political situation in the country in an interview for the Bulgarian National Radio

A speech made by the Chair of the Bulgarian National Assembly has received a vast response in Bulgarian society and is about to have a serious negative impact on the image of the ruling party. "They go and protest against the bad Borissov, and then they get on the metro and go home. Just walk! ”Tsveta Karayancheva said, commenting on protests and the work done by the ruling GERB party so far. The result was not late – social networks are now full of statuses reading “I Walk” while political scientists have started speaking about a socio-cultural conflict that would seriously affect support for the party in possible early or even regular elections in March.

"GERB are ruling stubbornly, constantly losing in terms of electorate,” says political scientist Ivo Indjov in an interview with BNR’s "Horizont" and adds: “Maybe there are some dependencies that prevent Prime Minister Borissov from resigning. Theories include absorption of cash flows, hiding of some traces in government, and there are even speculations that the MRF did not allow him to resign. GERB rule with great hatred not only towards protesters, but obviously towards a large part of society that supports the protests. The arrogant language of the Speaker of the Parliament, Tsveta Karayancheva, makes the attitude of more and more people negative, not only towards her but also towards the way GERB functions."

According to Ivo Indjov, the political language of GERB leaders is "returning like a boomerang to this political force and it also increasingly irritates and outrages people, because beyond the protest against corruption, the conflict has already turned into a socio-cultural one.”

The situation in Bulgaria is also on the European Parliament’s agenda. However, protests in the country are not as massive as they were in the beginning of July and the probability of the government completing its mandate is high.

"It is not necessary to have 10-20 thousand people in the street every day, because the protest has already changed not only the agenda of Bulgaria, but has also put Bulgaria in the focus of world media and European institutions. If GERB managed to stay in power until the regular elections, the party would come out of them with much lower percentage than if they resigned now," Inzhov has told BNR.

It is yet to be seen whether there would be a rearrangement of the political spectrum in Bulgaria. Over the past weekend, former key figure in GERB Tsvetan Tsvetanov established and headed his new political project called "Republicans for Bulgaria". Pavel Valnev, a Bulgarian businessman from Chicago, was elected as deputy chair, which is seen as a sign that one of the new party's priorities will be guaranteeing the rights of Bulgarians abroad to participate in elections through electronic voting. Tsvetanov extended a hand to protesting Bulgarians in the country and abroad, declaring that "those who have the knowledge and abilities have a place in this project" and called for electronic voting, which is among the main demands of the protests.

This formation will certainly tear at least a few percent off GERB. "Republicans for Bulgaria will not be able to enter the parliament, but they will further weaken GERB,” political scientist Ivo Indjov says.

Analysts have also started talking about the possibility of this party forming a coalition with right-wing political forces. However, Democratic Bulgaria will be very careful with whom it forms a coalition, as any possibility of a coalition with GERB is met with strong criticism not only by party members but also by right-wing supporters in this country.

When it comes to the oldest party in Bulgaria – BSP, there are also changes and questions related to it. After the BSP recently re-elected Kornelia Ninova as its leader, at its congress over the weekend it formed a new National Council. However, notable figures such as PES President Sergey Stanishev, Deputy Speaker of the 44^th National Assembly Valeri Zhablyanov, long term MP Georgi Pirinski and others are not part of it. Now Ninova will have a consolidated National Council behind her, in which she would be less criticized, Inzhov forecasts. There will be opposition in BSP based not on different views but on the current situation, he added. According to the political scientist, the big question is whether the BSP would form a left wing taking into account the values ​​of the 21st century, such as environmental issues and the rights of minorities, so that the party is not fixed only on social issues. "If such a trend was not created, the BSP would be doomed to conservation."

There are chances for Ninova's BSP to win against GERB, albeit by a small margin, the analyst forecasts:

"On a national scale, we must take into account the effect of the ongoing political agony – the longer the elections are delayed, the more GERB's positions weaken. The silent majority that supports the protests will become even angrier. “In addition, in case of higher voter turnout, which will most likely happen, it would have negative effect on GERB,” the political scientist said in his interview for the Bulgarian National Radio.

Editor: Elena Karkalanova

English: Alexander Markov