Bulgaria’s economist Professor Daniela Bobeva and the Chairman of the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Tsvetan Simeonov analyzed the economic perspectives of Bulgaria. They voiced different positions about the economic situation in Bulgaria in an interview for the Bulgarian National Radio.

We missed the opportunity to make the most-important structural reforms during the best times after the economic crisis, in order to be much better prepared for the new economic cycle, Professor Bobeva contends. The Bulgarian economy suffers from underinvestment and we cannot grow and catch up with the other economies without investments, the economist explains. Moreover, Bulgaria faces the problem related to the negative migration balance, i.e. the number of people leaving this country is much bigger than the number of those who return to their country. In her words, the most negative migration balance is in the group of people aged between 20 and 29. Most of the people who return to their home country are aged between 60 and 69. Bulgaria’s economy loses from the free movement of people. We are talking about a completely different model of migration where most of the active and qualified workforce moves in different EU member states, works there and returns to Bulgaria temporarily, Professor Bobeva said. The European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, the Bulgarian National Bank and the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance are forecasting that the Bulgarian economy will slow down. If Germany undertakes any fiscal stimuli that would influence positively the European economy and in particular the countries in the Eurozone, the effect on the Bulgarian economy would be positive as well. With regard to the warnings about possible recession, Daniela Bobeva contends that such statements may encourage the government to take certain decisions that would mitigate the negative effect and avoid the slowdown reached during the last financial crisis 10 years ago.

The data about the Bulgarian economy is much better that the EU average, which, however, should not in any way reassure us, because this may harm seriously the Bulgarian economy, the Chairman of the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Tsvetan Simeonov contends. The participants at the meeting of the European Chambers of Commerce and Industry held several days ago took important decisions how Europecan exit the stagnation. This is of particular importance for Bulgaria, which wants to maintain its growth rates. Tsvetan Simeonov contends that it is very important for the European economy to continue looking for new markets, because the trade wars impede international trade. In this sense, the agreements signed between the EU, Japan and South Korea are a good opportunity Bulgaria can and should benefit from.

It became clear during the meeting of the European Chambers of Commerce and Industry that the countries should accentuate on the education of young people in line with the needs of the companies in Europe. The participants agreed to facilitate the mobility of young people from non-EU countries within the frameworks of the 43 member countries of the Association of the European Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

This is an opportunity Bulgaria should not miss, because this country experiences a shortage of workforce, Tsvetan Simeonov said. However, we must be very careful and evaluate the impact over the Bulgarian economy, Mr Simeonov went on to say.

Unresolved strategic tasks hinder the new large investments, Tsvetan Simeonov contends. We are witnessing some efforts of the Bulgarian authorities to fight corruption, but we all know that the work of the judicial system in Bulgaria is not that good. Without solving these two problems, it will be difficult to attract new investors, Tsvetan Simeonov says and adds that 95% of the investors which are already operating in Bulgaria are trying to expand their businesses in this country. This fact makes us optimistic that even if we don’t manage to maintain the current 3% economic growth, at least we will not enter a period of stagnation, like in some big EU countries.

Edited by: Yoan Kolev

English version: Kostadin Atanasov